Economic Research

In-depth reports on key economic issues.

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    Tue, 12 August 2014

    Macroeconomic update: Economic projections for 2014 revised up

    We have revised some of our 2014 forecasts to take account of a recent flow of data that has generally been stronger than we had anticipated. With higher than expected year-to-date oil prices and output, we have revised up our forecast upwards for both. Higher public spending and robust credit growth should support non-oil growth with construction, transport, manufacturing and retail sectors in the lead. A slowdown in global growth and geopolitical tensions constitute key risks, though they are less acute and more evenly balanced than in recent years.

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    Mon, 21 July 2014

    Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q2 2014)

    Global oil demand in Q2 2014 increased by 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) year-on-year, whilst falls in OPEC production saw global supply limited to increases of 0.4 mbpd, year-on-year. Non-OPEC supply will exceed global demand growth in 2014 but geopolitical events will prevent any sustained fall in oil prices. As a result, we have revised our Brent oil forecasts upwards from $105 per barrel previously, to an average of $109 per barrel for 2014. We have also revised our Saudi crude production forecasts upwards to 9.7 mbpd for 2014, from 9.4 mbpd previously.

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    Tue, 15 July 2014

    Inflation report (June 2014): Surprise decline in food inflation

    According to the Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI), Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.7 percent, year-on-year, for the third consecutive month in June. Food prices surprised with a decline of 0.2 percent month-on-month, though this segment still remain the second largest contributor to annual inflation, after rental and housing related services.

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    Mon, 07 July 2014

    Quarterly GDP update: (Manufactuing and oil sectors lead the growth in Q1)

    Latest economic growth data released by CDSI show a real economic growth of 4.7 percent, nearly 1 percentage point higher than in the same period of 2013. Growth was unchanged compared with the previous quarter and was more dependent on the oil sector as structural changes in the labor market continued to affect the non-oil economy. As a result, a number of leading non-oil sectors registered a slowdown in growth, yet their contribution to the overall economic growth remained robust.

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    Thu, 17 April 2014

    Inflation report (March 2014): Headline CPI inflation continues to fall

    Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate fell for the fourth consecutive month in March, reaching 2.6 percent year-on-year compared with 2.8 percent in the previous month. Lower food price inflation was the main reason for the decline, while rental inflation picked up slightly.

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