Economic Research

In-depth reports on key economic issues.

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    Thu, 24 November 2016

    Macroeconomic update- November 2016: (Reform of the Saudi economy begins to take shape)

    Since the start of 2016, and in line with targets specified in the National Transformation Program (NTP 2020), prudent policies to reform the fiscal budget have been taken, with their impact on economic performance starting to take shape. We have therefore revised some of our 2016 and 2017 forecasts to take into account this recent set of reforms.

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    Tue, 25 October 2016

    Natural Gas and the Vision 2030

    Historically, the pace of growth in Saudi gas demand has kept up with gas output. Looking ahead, gas demand is not likely to slow as total electricity consumption is pushed up by industrial development, in line with the Vision 2030, and rising population levels. Accordingly, Jadwa Investment forecasts that Saudi Arabia will need to grow gas output by an annual average rate of either 3.7 percent, in the base case scenario, or 6.6 percent, in the high case scenario, in the decade to 2030.

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    Sun, 16 October 2016

    Quarterly oil Market Update (Q3 2016): Are Oil Markets better off with OPEC cuts?

    OPEC’s decision to announce, but not to implement, a cut in production immediately sent Brent oil prices up 6 percent at the end of September. Prices were further supported by statements from Russia expressing its readiness to cooperate in order to limit oil output. OPEC plans on meeting in November, when the extent of OPEC cuts and individual country quotas are to be decided. Whilst the deal to cut remains fragile and fraught with numerous obstacles, as a result of the financial difficulty faced by a number of OPEC member economies, most notably Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya, there will be immense pressure to ensure some sort of deal is reached in November. In this context, we see the most likely outcome being an agreement to cut production, but only by a small amount, more akin to a production ’freeze’ rather than an outright cut. Such an agreement would underline OPEC’s intention to limit further rises in production and help stabilize oil prices at current levels (around $50 per barrel).

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    Sun, 09 October 2016

    Q2 real GDP trends down, forecast revised

    The General Authority for Statistics (GAS) has released GDP data for the second quarter this year showing a real economic growth of 1.4 percent compared with 4.9 percent in the second quarter of 2015 and 1.5 percent in the first quarter of this year. We expect economic performance to remain on the same trajectory for the remainder of the year.

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    Mon, 26 September 2016

    International Trade and Investment Outlook

    Structural reforms announced in both the Vision 2030 and the National Transformation Program (NTP 2020) will have major implications on the Kingdom’s trade and financial flows, with a dramatic shift in the balance of payments over the next fifteen years. This report highlights how the implementation of reforms stipulated in both programs will move the economy away from oil, whilst, simultaneously, contributing to a competitive and productive private sector, which will attract foreign capital and contribute to further knowledge exchange, investment, and employment.

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