Macroeconomic reports

Macroeconomic report

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    Tue, 23 February 2021

    The Saudi Economy in 2021

    Looking out into 2021, while there is still a considerable degree of uncertainty as a result of the prevalence of COVID-19 and its potential impact on the non-oil economy, we nevertheless expect a broad-based recovery. Our forecast assumes between 15-20 percent of the adult population being vaccinated against COVID-19 by mid-2021, and 70 percent by year end. As such, we see a quarter-on-quarter improvement in the Saudi non-oil economy, with this recovery being more vigorous in the second half of 2021.

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    Wed, 25 November 2020

    Macroeconomic Update – November 2020: (Not bad, all things considered)

    A less steeper decline than expected in Q2, and a stronger recovery in Q3 has led us to revise our non-oil GDP forecast for the Kingdom in 2020. All in all, we expect non-oil GDP to decline by 2.7 percent (compared to -3 percent previously).

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    Mon, 24 August 2020

    Macroeconomic Update – August 2020: (Is the worst behind us?)

    The only change to our economic forecast for Saudi Arabia relates to the oil sector. Ongoing efforts by OPEC and partners (OPEC+) to stabilize oil markets have seen monumental efforts in oil diplomacy resulting in frequent adjustments in output targets, roll-overs, voluntary reductions and ‘catch ups’ for members of the oil producing alliance in the last few months.

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    Tue, 17 March 2020

    Macroeconomic Update – March 2020: (COVID-19 changes everything, for now)

    We expect economic growth in Saudi Arabia to improve in 2020 as both the oil and non-oil sectors contribute to overall growth. Latest full year GDP data for 2019 showed that the economy just about managed to record growth at 0.3 percent, but we expect this to improve significantly in the year ahead, to 6.3 percent, primarily as a result of sizable rises in yearly crude oil production. 

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    Mon, 25 November 2019

    Macroeconomic Update – November 2019: (Consistent growth in non-oil activity)

    n light of recent economic data, our revised forecast points to a modest level of growth in the Kingdom in 2019. Further downward revision in oil sector GDP means that we now see overall growth at 0.2 percent, versus 1.6 percent previously.

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    Tue, 09 July 2019

    Macroeconomic Update - Pick-up in non-oil activity

    Our economic forecast for the Kingdom has been revised down wholly on the account of developments related to the oil market. Whilst we previously expected overall growth to hit 2 percent in 2019, a downward revision in oil sector GDP means that we now see growth at around 1.6 percent.

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    Tue, 12 February 2019

    The Saudi Economy in 2019

    Jadwa Investment’s Saudi economy in 2019 report has forecasted 2 percent growth in the economy during the year. Latest full year GDP data for 2018 shows that the economy was able to absorb most of the disruptive effects of necessary economic reform enacted last year. Looking ahead, as comparably limited major reform is scheduled to take place during 2019, this should clear the way for a pick-up in momentum for the Saudi economy. Overall, whilst the oil sector’s output will be partially trimmed by Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the OPEC and partners (OPEC+) agreement, the report forecasts a marginally higher year-on-year growth in the non-oil sector.

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    Tue, 06 November 2018

    Macroeconomic update – November 2018

    The fundamentals of Saudi economy remain unaltered and we expect solid growth in the next few years. Accordingly, we still expect the economy to grow by 2.2 percent in 2018 (compared to -0.9 percent in 2017), with an improvement in the oil sector lifting oil GDP to 3.2 percent in 2018.  

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    Tue, 10 July 2018

    Saudi Economy Adjusting to Structural Change

    We have revised our forecast for the Saudi economy and we now expect to see growth of 2.2 percent in 2018 (compared to -0.9 percent in 2017). The sizable rebound in growth will be partly driven by an improvement in the oil sector. As Saudi Arabia raises oil output, this will positively affect oil sector GDP, lifting it to 3.2 percent in 2018, compared to a decline of 3.0 percent in 2017.

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    Sun, 04 February 2018

    The Saudi Economy in 2018

    We expect an improvement in the Saudi economy in the year ahead, supported by both the oil and non-oil sector. Oil sector GDP is expected to improve, in part, due to rises in oil production as OPEC and non-OPEC countries gradually exit from cuts at some point during the year. Growth in the non-oil sector is forecasted to improve as an expansionary budget, with a specific set of stimulus packages, lifts activity.

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