Quarterly GDP update: (Oil sector pushes up overall growth in Q1-15)
Oil Market ReportLatest data released by CDSI show a Saudi economic growth of 2.4 percent year-on-year, 0.8 percentage point higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Contribution to growth has remained unchanged with the non-oil sector becoming once again the main growth driver, while oil sector growth and contribution have turned positive for the first time since Q2-14. We assume that annual economic growth will trend higher for the remainder of the year, owing to an increase in oil output, while the non-oil private sector remains robust.
Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q3 2014)
Oil Market ReportIn Q3 2014 oil prices dropped by 7.3 percent to an average of $102 per barrel. We believe this was due to a combination of accelerating US supply, weaker than expected global demand, stabilization in geopolitics, and an appreciation of the dollar. Oil prices will recover slightly in Q4 2014 but ample supply from non-OPEC sources will prevent prices from rising too far beyond $100 per barrel, unless there is a significant deterioration in geopolitics in Iraq, Libya or Russia/Ukraine. We expect Saudi production to 9.5 mbpd in Q4 2014, resulting in 9.7 mbpd average for 2014. In 2015, as the global economy recovers and oil demand picks up, we see Saudi production averaging 9.6 mbpd.
