Quarterly Oil Market Update - Q3 2017: (OPEC's big decision)
Oil Market ReportIn its latest monthly oil report, OPEC has raised global oil demand forecasts for the third consecutive month, underlining the bullish tone towards oil prices in recent months. These revisions combined with geopolitical developments in Iraq helped push Brent oil prices up 6 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2017, to an average of $52 per barrel (pb). More recently, rising expectations related to OPEC rolling over cuts in an upcoming meeting and regional geopolitical tensions have pushed Brent crude oil prices back above $60 pb. Prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued regional geopolitical tensions.
Quarterly Oil Market Update: All eyes on OPEC and the US
Oil Market ReportCurrently, Brent oil is trading at around $55 per barrel, with little deviation from this level in the last two months. This stability in prices is mainly due to coordinated action by OPEC and some non-OPEC members, with January crude oil production data showing OPECs oil output was down, month-on-month, by 900 thousand barrels per day. Despite the relatively stable start to the year, oil price volatility is likely to re-emerge during 2017 as global oil markets face up to a rising risk of OPEC noncompliance to production cuts, upward revisions in US oil production, and policy initiatives from the new US administration.
Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q4-2015):Oil prices are going to be lower for longer
Oil Market ReportThe current period of low prices is set to remain throughout 2016, pulled down primarily as a result of persistently high oil supply. All-out competition between members of OPEC will be the main reason for continued oversupplied markets. We expect to see OPEC production rising by a further 500 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) by Q4 2016 year-on-year with most of the rises coming from increased Iranian supply. Meanwhile, recently downward revised global economic growth forecasts by the IMF point to moderate yearly growth in oil demand. All of these factors have led us to cut our full year 2016 Brent forecast to $33 per barrel (pb), from $47 pb previously, and 2017 forecast to $44 pb from 58 pb previously.
