Macroeconomic update- June 2017: (Mild improvements in the Saudi economy, but risks remain)
Macroeconomic ReportWe have revised our 2017 forecasts to take into account the recent set of oil production and economic data. We forecast overall GDP growth to be 0.1 percent in 2017 (compared to 1.4 percent in 2016) due to a sharp decline in oil sector GDP, by -1.2 percent (compared to 3.4 percent in 2016). More positively, we forecast non-oil GDP to reach 1 percent during the same period (compared to 0.2 percent in 2016).
Macroeconomic update- November 2016: (Reform of the Saudi economy begins to take shape)
Macroeconomic ReportSince the start of 2016, and in line with targets specified in the National Transformation Program (NTP 2020), prudent policies to reform the fiscal budget have been taken, with their impact on economic performance starting to take shape. We have therefore revised some of our 2016 and 2017 forecasts to take into account this recent set of reforms.
Macroeconomic update: Economic projections for 2014 revised up
Macroeconomic ReportWe have revised some of our 2014 forecasts to take account of a recent flow of data that has generally been stronger than we had anticipated. With higher than expected year-to-date oil prices and output, we have revised up our forecast upwards for both. Higher public spending and robust credit growth should support non-oil growth with construction, transport, manufacturing and retail sectors in the lead. A slowdown in global growth and geopolitical tensions constitute key risks, though they are less acute and more evenly balanced than in recent years.
