Macroeconomic update - July 2023: (Raising our non-oil GDP forecast)

The Saudi domestic economy continues to grow robustly. Real non-oil GDP expanded by 5.4 percent in Q1-23, with Domestic Trade, Construction, and Transport leading the way. Available data for Q2 indicate that activity in these sectors continues at a brisk pace. Manufacturing was the only sector to record a year-on-year decline, with Refining contracting in the face of soft regional demand, and Petrochemicals exports to China struggling to gain traction. Nevertheless, Saudi domestic Manufacturing demand is strong and new factories continue to be rolled out. Thus, we raise our non-oil GDP growth forecast to 5.9 percent this year, with a similar rate of expansion anticipated for 2024.