The Saudi Economy in 2015
Macroeconomic ReportWe expect that the economy will continue performing strongly in 2015, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous few years. Lower oil production will drag down overall GDP growth to 2.5 percent while the non-oil private sector will continue to record robust growth, at 5.3 percent. The decline in oil prices will mean a narrowing current account surplus and a larger-than-budgeted fiscal deficit.
Oil market dynamics and Saudi fiscal challenges
Macroeconomic ReportThe recent OPECs decision not to cut output adds further uncertainty not only on the global oil market, but also on the outlook for the Kingdoms fiscal policy. In this report we examine the global environment that led to such decision. We note that while such decision along with other variables in the market would result in different price levels over the next two years, prices of $85 and 83 per barrel for 2015 and 2016, respectively, are most likely. These lower prices will have a direct impact on the balance of payments and fiscal position of the Kingdom. In this report, we examine a number of fiscal policy reactions to different budgetary outcomes and implication of each on the non-oil economy.
Monetary update (May 2013): Credit growth continues to rise
Macroeconomic ReportSAMA released recently data on monetary indicators for the month of May. All indicators are healthy in the month, as the net credit to the private sector increased 16,5 percent year-on-year, total bank deposits increased by SR17.7 billion, SAMAs reserve assets continued to grow and added SR31 billion, and bank excess deposits with SAMA remained elevated at SR79.9 billion reflecting the strong liquidity of the domestic banks.
Monetary update (June 2013): Credit expands, but not deposits
Macroeconomic ReportSAMA released data on monetary indicators for the month of June. All indicators are healthy, though some decline compared with the previous month. Net credit issued to the private sector increased by SR13.9 billion to record an annual growth of 15.9 percent, total deposits slipped by SR3.6 billion, SAMAs reserve assets slipped by SR2.4 billion, and bank excess deposits contracted to SR56 billion, though they are still higher than a year earlier.
Saudi monetary update (July 2013): Flat deposits, but higher credit
Macroeconomic ReportBased on data released recently by SAMA on the Saudi monetary indicators for the month of July, we highlighted a number of key updates in this report. Net credit issued to the private sector maintains positive momentum while growth of consumer lending recorded an all-time high. Loan-to-deposit ratio rises to 82.5 percent as total deposits remain flat. Money supply growth maintains a double digit growth and foreign assets continue to rise on the back of higher oil revenues.
