Economic updates
Our in-depth, independent reports cover the macroeconomic environment, the Saudi government’s annual budget, and Saudi Arabia’s monetary and financial developments, labor market, and inflation.
Quarterly Oil Market Update- Attention shifting from supply to demand.
Oil market reportBrent Oil prices dropped by 18 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2015 and averaged $50 per barrel. The market continues to witness a shift from supply to demand and no appreciable upside on oil prices is envisaged by this trend. The continued moderate pace of global economic growth will result in a 1.4 percent year-on-year global oil demand uplift with similar growth rates envisaged for 2016.
The Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Shale Oil
Oil market reportThe Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Shale Oil
The impact of lower oil prices on shale oil- US Shale Oil at an Inflection Point
Oil market reportUS shale oil production continued to increase even as oil prices tumbled 50 percent but lower oil prices have begun to take their toll. Sustained drops in US oil production are expected as oil hedges expire, financing from secured lending is tightened and the high yield debt market becomes too expensive. Aside from shale oil, the lower oil price environment will also impact global oil supply but Saudi Arabia will be the main beneficiary when global oil markets become tighter and prices rebound by 2020.
Oil market dynamics and Saudi fiscal challenges
Macroeconomic reportThe recent OPECs decision not to cut output adds further uncertainty not only on the global oil market, but also on the outlook for the Kingdoms fiscal policy. In this report we examine the global environment that led to such decision. We note that while such decision along with other variables in the market would result in different price levels over the next two years, prices of $85 and 83 per barrel for 2015 and 2016, respectively, are most likely. These lower prices will have a direct impact on the balance of payments and fiscal position of the Kingdom. In this report, we examine a number of fiscal policy reactions to different budgetary outcomes and implication of each on the non-oil economy.
